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Throughout the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán emerged as the exclusive EU chief to endorse Donald Trump. This alignment was expected, in light of the Hungarian leader's adoption of controversial ideas like great replacement ideology and the crackdowns on media freedom. Commentators have noted that Mr Orbán practically laid the groundwork for the Maga movement, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon hailing him as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance In advance of Hungary's Polls

In recent days, with crucial Hungarian elections just six months away, Donald Trump returned some political favors. With Orbán seeks a fifth straight win presiding over a country he labels an illiberal state, his ruling party lags in surveys. A meeting to Washington produced beyond a few signed Maga baseball caps; it obtained highly beneficial campaign boosts.

Waivers and Fiscal Safeguards

Despite before admonishing EU countries on the necessity to halt all fuel purchases from Russia, and warning of sanctions against nations continuing to import Russian energy, Mr Trump agreed to provide a particular exclusion for the Hungarian government – the biggest user in the EU of Russian oil. As Orbán stated, the Trump administration also agreed to provide a economic protection to Budapest should it faces any future difficulties, particularly since Brussels is still blocking billions in EU funding to Hungary due to failures to uphold the rule of law.

The details of this agreement remain somewhat murky. However Mr Trump recently demonstrated his willingness to assist political friends when the US granted a $20 billion in emergency funds to Javier Milei, the South American leader. While Mr Orbán did not secure a Trump trip to Budapest to Budapest, the Oval Office meeting nevertheless turned out to be a profitable day’s work.

EU Concerns and International Implications

Among European leaders, Mr Trump’s intervention likely highlighted the strategic importance of the forthcoming polls, ahead of which the opposition candidate, the rival candidate, enjoys a solid advantage in opinion data. European leaders are accustomed not to expect principled consistency from the Trump White House, and accept the American leader's attempts to undermine the European Union. But Mr Orbán’s exemption – which came at the price of an agreement to buy American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens the bloc's aims to phase out Russian oil and gas by the year 2027.

• Starting in 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia, have funneled well over £10bn to the Moscow's war operations.
• Simultaneously, Budapest has consistently deployed the threat of its veto to stymie progress in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• While Europe works to forge a unified and effective strategy for aiding the Ukrainian government, and enhancing its leverage in any future peace negotiations, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the diplomatic table continues to be a major hurdle.

Rival's Approach

Mr Magyar has refrained from vowing a drastic turnaround on the war in Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while emphasizing the importance for the country to start acting as a constructive EU member. After years of persistent provocations, Brussels can only wait and hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to fundamental European principles, including the upholding of minority rights and the independence of civil society institutions, has remained a humiliating embarrassment for the bloc. His persistent opposition on the Ukraine issue risks undermining its long-term safety.